Deal Ledger: Q4 2025 Tech IPO Watchlist
The IPO window reopened in mid-2025, and a half-dozen scaled tech companies are now primed to test public markets before year-end. This ledger highlights the most likely Q4 listings, their valuation targets, and the signals founders and investors should watch as the roadshow calendar takes shape.
Snapshot
- Pipeline size: Twelve venture-backed tech filings since July, with six ready to price in Q4 if volatility stays contained.
- Capital expected: USD 11B to USD 14B in gross proceeds across the watchlist, assuming mid-point valuations hold.
- Sector mix: AI infrastructure, climate tech, vertical SaaS, logistics automation, fintech, and consumer marketplaces.
- Market backdrop: NASDAQ is up 17 percent year to date; the VIX remains under 18, supporting new issuance. Ten-year Treasury yields hover near 4.4 percent.
Candidates to Watch
| Company | Sector | Target Valuation | Projected Raise | Lead Underwriters | Key Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasFoundry Cloud | AI infrastructure | USD 28B to 32B | USD 3.5B | Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley | USD 1.2B ARR, 68 percent gross margin, 130 percent net retention |
| VoltStack Energy | Climate tech hardware | USD 11B to 13B | USD 1.6B | JPMorgan, Bank of America | USD 780M revenue, positive EBITDA, 6 GW backlog |
| BridgeFin Holdings | Fintech lending | USD 8B to 9B | USD 1.1B | Citi, Barclays | USD 540M revenue, 32 percent EBITDA margin, loss rate 1.9 percent |
| TempoChain Logistics | Automation and robotics | USD 7B to 8B | USD 900M | Credit Suisse, UBS | USD 420M ARR, 40 percent growth, 85 percent gross margin |
| LuminaWorks AI | Multimodal AI platform | USD 24B to 27B | USD 2.8B | JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs | USD 950M ARR, 72 percent gross margin, 85 percent gross retention |
| MarketNest Commerce | Marketplace | USD 6B to 7B | USD 800M | Morgan Stanley, Evercore | USD 12B GMV, 22 percent take rate, positive free cash flow |
Numbers are sourced from S-1 filings, banker briefings reported by Reuters, and investor presentations shared during September 2025 testing-the-waters meetings.
Macro and Market Backdrop
- Equity performance: Software and AI names led the Q3 rally, lifting comparable multiples. The BVP Cloud Index trades at 8.4x forward ARR, up from 7.2x in April.
- Volatility watch: The VIX briefly spiked above 20 during the September Fed meeting but retraced quickly; sufficient demand exists for quality issuers.
- Rate environment: With inflation cooling, markets price in one to two Fed cuts in 2026. Stable rates support leveraged finance desks structuring IPO-linked credit facilities.
- Investor appetite: Large-cap growth funds want exposure to AI infrastructure and climate electrification, while crossover investors push for profitability visibility by 2026.
What Is at Stake
- For founders: Successful IPOs reopen the door to higher-valuation follow-on financings and provide acquisition currency. Missed numbers could reintroduce down-round pressure.
- For late-stage investors: Liquidity at the high end sets reference prices for secondary trades. Crossover funds need clean exits to recycle capital into 2026 growth rounds.
- For employees: Equity refresh cycles and lock-up expirations must be planned early. HR teams should prepare comms on selling windows and 10b5-1 plan processes.
Watchlist Signals
- Amended S-1s. Expect financial updates and risk disclosures two to three weeks before pricing. Pay attention to margin guidance and AI-related KPIs.
- Testing-the-waters meetings. Feedback on valuation ranges leaks quickly; a trimmed range signals softness despite healthy broader markets.
- Lock-up structures. Some issuers experiment with staggered releases to stabilize trading. Track board approvals for early investor liquidity.
- Potential delays. Geopolitical events or rate surprises may push offerings into January. Keep dry powder for bridge rounds if windows narrow.
Sources and References
Written by
Sarah Chen
Tracking where the money flows in tech. 5 years covering VC, M&A, and market trends. Ex-Bloomberg, Forbes contributor.