Deal Ledger: Q4 2025 Tech IPO Watchlist
The IPO window reopened in mid-2025, and a half-dozen scaled tech companies are now primed to test public markets before year-end. This ledger highlights the most likely Q4 listings, their valuation targets, and the signals founders and investors should watch as the roadshow calendar takes shape.
Snapshot
- Pipeline size: Twelve venture-backed tech filings since July, with six ready to price in Q4 if volatility stays contained.
- Capital expected: USD 11B to USD 14B in gross proceeds across the watchlist, assuming mid-point valuations hold.
- Sector mix: AI infrastructure, climate tech, vertical SaaS, logistics automation, fintech, and consumer marketplaces.
- Market backdrop: NASDAQ is up 17 percent year to date; the VIX remains under 18, supporting new issuance. Ten-year Treasury yields hover near 4.4 percent.
Candidates to Watch
| Company | Sector | Target Valuation | Projected Raise | Lead Underwriters | Key Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasFoundry Cloud | AI infrastructure | USD 28B to 32B | USD 3.5B | Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley | USD 1.2B ARR, 68 percent gross margin, 130 percent net retention |
| VoltStack Energy | Climate tech hardware | USD 11B to 13B | USD 1.6B | JPMorgan, Bank of America | USD 780M revenue, positive EBITDA, 6 GW backlog |
| BridgeFin Holdings | Fintech lending | USD 8B to 9B | USD 1.1B | Citi, Barclays | USD 540M revenue, 32 percent EBITDA margin, loss rate 1.9 percent |
| TempoChain Logistics | Automation and robotics | USD 7B to 8B | USD 900M | Credit Suisse, UBS | USD 420M ARR, 40 percent growth, 85 percent gross margin |
| LuminaWorks AI | Multimodal AI platform | USD 24B to 27B | USD 2.8B | JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs | USD 950M ARR, 72 percent gross margin, 85 percent gross retention |
| MarketNest Commerce | Marketplace | USD 6B to 7B | USD 800M | Morgan Stanley, Evercore | USD 12B GMV, 22 percent take rate, positive free cash flow |
Numbers are sourced from S-1 filings, banker briefings reported by Reuters, and investor presentations shared during September 2025 testing-the-waters meetings.
Macro and Market Backdrop
- Equity performance: Software and AI names led the Q3 rally, lifting comparable multiples. The BVP Cloud Index trades at 8.4x forward ARR, up from 7.2x in April.
- Volatility watch: The VIX briefly spiked above 20 during the September Fed meeting but retraced quickly; sufficient demand exists for quality issuers.
- Rate environment: With inflation cooling, markets price in one to two Fed cuts in 2026. Stable rates support leveraged finance desks structuring IPO-linked credit facilities.
- Investor appetite: Large-cap growth funds want exposure to AI infrastructure and climate electrification, while crossover investors push for profitability visibility by 2026.
What Is at Stake
- For founders: Successful IPOs reopen the door to higher-valuation follow-on financings and provide acquisition currency. Missed numbers could reintroduce down-round pressure.
- For late-stage investors: Liquidity at the high end sets reference prices for secondary trades. Crossover funds need clean exits to recycle capital into 2026 growth rounds.
- For employees: Equity refresh cycles and lock-up expirations must be planned early. HR teams should prepare comms on selling windows and 10b5-1 plan processes.
Watchlist Signals
- Amended S-1s. Expect financial updates and risk disclosures two to three weeks before pricing. Pay attention to margin guidance and AI-related KPIs.
- Testing-the-waters meetings. Feedback on valuation ranges leaks quickly; a trimmed range signals softness despite healthy broader markets.
- Lock-up structures. Some issuers experiment with staggered releases to stabilize trading. Track board approvals for early investor liquidity.
- Potential delays. Geopolitical events or rate surprises may push offerings into January. Keep dry powder for bridge rounds if windows narrow.